One thing we can probably all agree on is that 2025 is off to one hell of a start.
It’s shaping up to be a doozy of a year: We’ve got mind bending polycrises, the normalization of the abnormal, and a generalized ratcheting up of anxiety, chaos and disorder.
I predict this will also be the year marking the death of change management – a rather sobering realization given that I’ve worked as a change management consultant, coach and trainer for the past two decades. Despite this investment in professional training and practice, intellectual honesty demands facing the truth – change management is not working. In fact, increasingly, it feels like screaming at the weather.
Change management had its moment in the sun, to be sure. Mostly, it was a useful third pillar in the traditional triangle of strategy, project management and change management when deploying planned transformations such as IT initiatives.
That was then. This is now.
The world we are operating in now is fundamentally different. The implicit assumption of toggling between periods of “change” and of “business as usual” entrenched in traditional change management now seems quaint. Vaguely cute, familiar, and decidedly obsolete, like the iconic screeching sound of a dial-up internet connection or the smell of fax machine toner. At this point it’s clear that “business as usual” has left the building and it’s not coming back.
As one client put it to me over lunch this week: “I’m used to building the airplane while flying it. But now the sky has changed.”
Where We’ve Come From:
Two years ago, I wrote about the disorder and unmooring caused by the pandemic in my most popular post ever, WTF Is Going On?. Many of the patterns I described then persist, and, if anything, have been amplified:
- We are bathing in anxiety and swimming in stupidity
- Just when we crave institutional stability the most, we are seeing the dismantling of trust and legitimacy across every sector (politics, business, culture, education, religion)
- The social contract that our children will fare better than their parents has been replaced by an existential fever of AI-inspired Fear Of Becoming Obsolete (FOBO)
- Employees feel at once overwhelmed and underwhelmed
- Silos are calcifying as we retreat to information cocoons
- Digital noise is unrelenting, leading to a state of continuous partial attention
It should be evident but in case it’s not, there is absolutely no way that a reductionist, simplistic and one-dimensional ADKAR model of traditional change management is going to save us. Like legions of others, I have been schooled and certified in the cheerfully reassuring bounce between the sequence of Awareness, Desire, Knowledge, Ability and Reinforcement. Despite the seductive appeal of this model, it has two fatal flaws in today’s context:
- In my experience with hundreds of change projects, the “thing” that is changing isn’t clear. The essential quality of organizational change today tends to be emergent, not planned – as such it’s hard to move through a change sequence when the real challenge is to level set what we’re even talking about in the first place.
- While many employees or citizens may be aware of an upcoming change, they never quite get through the necessary “Desire” checkpoint of the ADKAR sequence. We saw that with COVID and we see it now in spades. This is the point where the whole model unravels into an unruly, unmanageable mess.
In 2025, addressing the level of chaos, disruption and disorder of our current change agenda with this paint-by-numbers model is like showing up to an AI-enabled nuclear assault equipped with a fly swatter. At best, it’s scary in its naivete. At worst, it’s irresponsible.
Where We Are:
The landscape we are operating in has transformed insidiously and radically:
| FROM | TO |
| Solid structures | Liquid systems |
| Planned change | Emergence & adaptation |
| Resilience | Regeneration |
| Burning platform | Certainty anchors |
| Fight & flight anxiety response | Freeze & fawn anxiety response |
| Communication as a function | Communication as a process |
| Information dissemination | Sense making |
| Content is king | Context is queen |
Where Do We Go Next?
The million dollar (or crypto) question is – if our cozy trusted models for dealing with change are extinct, where do we go from here?
The first step is probably to have the humility and courage to unlearn habits and models that are no longer serving us. This is hard, especially when our sense of capability and self-identity may be wrapped in outdated structures but it’s essential. Be Netflix, not Blockbuster.
Next, here are three steps you can consider:
- Clarify the north star. In the fog of chaos, change and overwhelm, many teams have lost the plot. Before introducing a map, focus on the compass – make sure that your teams are crystal clear on which way’s north. Put another way, ensure that the goal of your goals is crisply defined.
- Prune your business. Relentlessly cut out or trim the noise in your organization. This includes digital overwhelm, undisciplined meetings, duplication and fluff. Treat your employees’ attention and focus as your number one asset. (As the Karate Kid wisely taught us, focus your focus!)
- Cultivate sturdy leadership. Organizations are aching for sturdy leaders – change agents, managers and executives who have the fortitude, skill and capabilities to support and galvanize teams. Building fit-for-purpose leadership capabilities in leading through change, chaos and ambiguity is vital (here are some resources that can help).
What the world needs now is forward motion propelled by a new form of leadership – one that holds the tension between being grounded and unleashed, between head and heart and between fear and hope. The collapse of traditional models is an invitation for the brave to challenge, to reinvent and to create.
The old models are dead. But maybe – just maybe – this is your time.
P.S. This post sparked a ton of great debate and discussion online. For a summary of those crowdsourced suggestions and ideas going forward check out the follow-up piece: What’s next for change?
